Providio's Daily Futures Market Commentary for 07/10/12

ENERGIES:
PETROLEUM:

10July The sector is on its heels a bit this morning after the Norwegian government ordered arbitration to settle the oil workers' strike that was scheduled to start at midnight last night. China, the world's second largest consumer, also saw imports drop to the lowest levels since December:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-10/oil-declines-as-norway-ends-energy-strike-chinese-import.html

The recent wide consolidation range after the 28June rally has served to take all three of our tracked markets off historically Overbought conditions and has us watching this week's foreign economic calendar focusing on European and Chinese Industry and GDP. US domestic "FedSpeak" may also give a clue about more stimulus that may be in the work.

Volatility remains Very High across the sector and Volume has fallen off ever since the 29June rally.

Watch all three of our Petro markets' 21-day moving averages for support. It is interesting to note that this average offered major resistance throughout the decline since April.

CRUDE OIL:

Futures Last Trade: Aug: 20July; Sep: 21Aug; Oct: 20Sep; Nov: 22Oct; Dec: 16Nov

Options Last Trade: Aug: 17July; Sep: 16Aug; Oct: 17Sep; Nov: 17Oct; Dec: 13Nov

10July

Support (continuous contract): 84.00: 06&09July double bottom.

83.05: 21-day moving average.

81.20: 21-28June consolidation highs

77.40: -2STD below 21-day moving average and 28June low.

75.71: 09Aug 2011 low

74.95: 04Oct 2011 low

Resistance (continuous contract): 87.00-86.60: June consolidation highs

88.70: +2STD above 21-day moving average.

89.30: late May consolidation lows.

89.90: 38.2% retracement of the March to June decline.

93.85: 50% retracement of the March to June decline.

Comment: A weaker, but still an "inside" day, as of this writing. Watch the double bottom formed Friday and Monday around 84.00, then the 21-day moving average at 83.00.

French Industrial Production was weaker than expected this morning, but Italy and UK's were stronger. Chinese and the European region as a whole reports on Thursday loom large ahead. Forecasts call for Chinese numbers to improve and the EuroZone to worsen. Weak releases will probably only serve to heighten speculation about more potential stimulus. However, Crude has not reacted with the Equity Indices' vigor to such news.

Our Momentum indicator remains positive, sustaining its 14June positive turn after briefly flirting with going negative, but our Rate of Change indicator is in a three-day decline.

Our Volatility measure has propelled to Very High levels and should handicap any option purchase strategies.

Seasonal Snapshot: (cash contract): All three patterns consolidate with an upward bias until a culmination high on 15July.

PRODUCTS:

Futures Last Trade: July: 29June; Aug: 31July; Sep: 31Aug; Oct: 28Sep; Nov: 31Oct; Dec:30Nov

Options Last Trade: July: 26June; Aug: 17July; Sep: 28Aug; Oct: 25Sep; Nov: 26Oct; Dec: 27 Nov

RBOB:

10July

Aug Support: 2.6950-2.7000: Lower end of the recent consolidation range.

2.6420: 29June high.

2.6045: 21-day moving average

2.4090 -2 STD below the 21-day moving average

2.4408: 21June low

Aug Resistance 2.8000: +2STD above the 21-day moving average.

2.8275: 38.2% retracement of the March to June decline.

2.8350: 200-day moving average.

2.9260: 50% retracement of the March to June decline.

Comment: Today's Doji Candle indicates indecision on this consolidation of the 29June rally above the 21-day moving average, which offered consistent resistance all the way down since early April. The rally has been capped at our noted +2STD above the 21-day moving average, for now.

These Bollinger Bands are still expanding widely, so this consolidation may be showing signs of exhaustion for the rally.

Gasoline supplies are below the lower limit of the average for this time of year and may, along with the official start of the summer driving season, be supporting prices.

Seasonal Snapshot: (cash): The 15&30yr patterns drift higher until 12July. The 5yr pattern drifts lower until the end of July.

HEATING OIL:

10July

Aug Support: 2.7030: 06&09July double bottom.

2.6488: 02July low.

2.6455: 21-day moving average.

2.5085: 25June low

2.4980: -2STD below the 21-day moving average.

Aug Resistance: 2.7930: +2 STD above the 21-day moving average.

2.7900: 05July high.

2.8170: 38.2% retracement of the March to June decline.

2.9175: 50% retracement of the March to June decline.

Comment: Similar to RBOB, Heating Oil is in a consolidation pattern since the 29June pop above the +2STD above the 21-day moving average. It does, however, have a slightly more negative bias inside this recent consolidation, essentially splitting the difference between the more Overbought RBOB and "middling" WTI Crude.

Seasonal Snapshot:(Cash) The 30yr pattern's weakness decouples from the stronger shorter-term patterns (until mid-July) and continues lower until mid July.

NATURAL GAS:

Futures Last Trade: Aug: 27July; Sep: 29Aug; Oct: 26Sep; Nov: 29Oct; Dec: 28Nov

Options last Trade: Aug: 26July; Sep: 28Aug; Oct: 25Sep; Nov: 26Oct; Dec: 27Nov

10July

Aug Support: 2.785: Rising trend line support since 14June rally.

2.70: 21-day moving average.

2.53: 06June high. Old resistance/new support for the 15June low.

2.215: 14June low

2.32: -2STD below 21-day moving average.

2.175: 20Apr low

Aug Resistance: 2.885: Mid May peak

3.07-3.08: +2STD above 21-day moving average and 200-day moving average.

3.315: 38.2% retracement of the June 2011 to April 2012 decline.

Comment: The tug of war may be coming to a close, on a technical level. Today's lows again tested rising trend line support that extends back to action after the 14June pop higher. Although it has probed above several times. the August contract is also still struggling with the mid-late May peak around the 2.90 level. One side has "gotta give"...

Friday's action revealed a bearish engulfing Candlestick pattern, on moderate Volume, indicating a potential reversal of recent gains may be in store.

This wide consolidation has our Overbought indicator (64) now "middling" and looking for direction. Our Rate of Change indicator is in its third day of decline, showing signs of leveling off and dragging on our positive Momentum.

Recent above normal temperatures are projected to last for the foreseeable future, serving to increase cooling demand supplied by natgas turbines. This speaks to bulging supplies and turns attention to Thursday's storage report, expected to show a smaller injection to storage.

Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns chop lower, then higher before starting a period of protracted weakness from 16June-22July.

EQUITY INDICES: Futures Last Trade: SP & NASDAQ: Sep: 20Sep; Dow: Sep: 21Sep Options Last Trade: SP & NASDAQ: July: 20July; Aug: 17Aug; Sep: 20Sep; Dow: July: 20July; Aug: 17Aug; Sep: 21Sep 10July We are shorting the SP on a stronger Volume move below the 21-day moving average (1338). An initial move below the lower end of the recently rising channel (currently 1326) would lower our stop to break-even. Next target is the -2STD Bollinger Band below the average (1303). SP Support: 1339: 21-day moving average 1326: Rising trend line from the 04June low. 1302.75: 25June low 1297: 12June low 1306.30.10: 200-day moving average 1303.10: -2 STD below the 21-day moving average 1262.00: 04June low SP Resistance: 1368.50 upper end of the brief consolidation period after the early May peak. 1375: +2 STD over the 21-day moving average. 1375: 7/5 highs 1405: 01May high. Dow support: 12665: 21-day moving average 12540: Rising trend line from the 04June low 12385: 200-day moving average 12376: 25June low 12288: 12June low 12405: -2 STD below 21-day 11985: 04June low Dow resistance: 12917: 05July high. 12925: +2STD above 21-day 12975: Upper end of the brief consolidation period after the early May peak. 13284: 01May high NASDAQ support: 2581.70: 21-day moving average 2532: Rising trend line from the 04June low. 2521: 25June low 2505: 12June low 2504: -2 STD below 21-day 2481.10: 200-day moving average 2433.75: 04June low NASDAQ resistance: 2648: Upper end of the brief consolidation period after the early May peak. 2659.40: +2 STD above 21-day MA. 2655.75: 05July high. 2753: 01May high. Comment: Our Momentum and Trend indicators are turning negative. All three of our tracked markets are threatening their rising 21-day moving averages, as of this writing. This average has offered modest support for each ever since breaking above around 06-07June. With the exception of Alcoa, what seems to be a poor start to Q2 earnings season is offering pressure. There also seems to be a fair amount of disappointment over the lack of concrete results from the European Finance Ministers' Summit. We remind readers that ever since bouncing off the -2STD below the 21-day moving average on 05June, all three markets have made a series of higher highs and lows. See above for levels. Seasonal Snapshot: (Cash Indices) All three patterns for all three markets track strengthen until the end of July.

GRAINS: Options Last Trade: Aug: 27July; Sep: 24Aug; Oct: 21Sep; Nov: 26Oct; Dec: 23Nov 10July Yesterday's Crop Progress Reports downgraded the Grains, but within the expected range. Coupled with some risk averse position squaring before tomorrow's monthly USDA Supply and Demand Report and mildly encouraging weather, the Grains sold off modestly this morning. CORN: First Notice: Sep: 31Aug; Dec: 30Nov 10July Corn is under moderate selling pressure as traders take profits and square positions ahead of tomorrow's monthly Supply and Demand report. A modest improvement in the weather forecast adds a bit of negative dynamic. December Support: 7:08:7/5 settlement, 7/9 opening 7.00: psychological level 6.73: Aug 2011 highs 6.56 ¾: 6/26 high trade 6.45: June 2011 highs 6.39 +2 STD over the 21-day moving average (5.53) 6.17 Oct 2011 highs 5.94: Gap left on 26June opening. 5.75: March high trades,support in early January, bullish support inflection level back to 7/1/2011 low. 5.69: Previous high and gap left on 25June opening. Resistance: 7.31: +2 STD over the 21-day moving average (5.94) 7.50: Psychological level 7.60: Projected measured move. 6/15 to 6/27-6/29 pause, then 1.27 move from 6/29. Comment: Technicals remain clearly positive and should remain so until a meaningful correction occurs. While the drought continues and additional damage to the current crop is implied, this remains an unlikely event. RSI now looks to be declining which indicates some slowing in positive Momentum. ROC is now headed sideways. New gaps remain in place between 6.74½ and 6.85½. Additional technical gaps remain between 5.94 and 5.96¼, between 5.54 and 5.70, and then well below the consolidation between 5.34 and 5.36 ¼. We leave some recent comments and observations in place to give some context to recent action and to remind our readers of the large supply and demand dynamics at play this crop year. Any new long positions should be sensitive to any factors that could be construed as taking the Momentum impetus away from the bullish case. Such as Weakening technical action Rain Continuing global economic weakness Weak energy prices We leave a portion of a recent comments in place as their relevancy to further thoughts in the market: Despite today's strength, we believe any new longs are likely to be jittery due to the previously noted vulnerabilities: A potential record crop Early completion of planting Ahead of trend Crop Progress Declining U.S. personal automobile fuel demand Deteriorating global economic conditions Seasonal Snapshot:For December-All 3 patterns have a modest positive bias until 7/14, when all 3 peak and head lower until starting bottoming action on 7/22. The 5 and 15-year patterns bottom on 7/25, the 30-year on 7/30. At their bottoms, all 3 will project modestly higher biases until 8/2. SOYBEANS: First Notice: Aug: 31July; Sep: 31Aug; Nov: 31Oct; Jan: 31Dec 10July Another expected drop in crop conditions, but within the expected range of decline, is working in conjunction with pre Supply/Demand Report position squaring. The result is some mild selling pressure this morning. Support: 15.25: 7/5 & 7/26 resistance and overnight support test on 7/9. 15.00: Major psychological and round number price level, and measures to the $1.00 move higher from the previous high 14.50: Psychological level 14.47: +2 STD over the 21-day moving average (13.48) 14.37: 6/25 high trade also right at the +2 STD over the 21-day moving average. 13.95-14.00: Major level as November peaked here from 8/31-9/12, then failed again from 4/2-6/21 13.90: Gap left on 25June opening 13.63-13.68: 4/16-/4/23 multiple failures to go higher, support 5/2-5/4, failure to go higher 5/10 and 5/11 Resistance: 15.57: 7/9 early session resistance. 15.71¼: 7/9 high trade Comment: Technicals remain positive, but the ROC and RSI have declined some. The +2 STD (15.55) over the 21-day moving average (11.09) is acting as a drag on upward momentum. Some serious gaps remain below, most notably 14.74¾ to 14.93. If this gets filled and the drought action remains, this may set up the Soybeans for a move to materially higher record highs. Any news of significant rain, especially in Illinois or Iowa, will likely spark another violent move lower. Maybe this is the gap filler? Seasonal Snapshot: For November-All 3 patterns are in a modest positive mode until 7/14. All then enter a negative mode until bottoming action is complete on 7/29. WHEAT: First Notice: Sep: 31Aug; Dec: 30Nov 10July Wheat continues to move in sympathy with Corn. Today's action however, appears somewhat consolidative amid likely pre-report profit taking. Support: 8.41½: Resistance in late July and support in early September 2011. 8.15: mid-level support area from mid-July and mid-August 2011 8.00: psychological level and mid-Sep 2011 resistance. 7.80: 8/9/11 and 9/15/11 low support 7.66: 10/11 settlement, upper level of late October through early November rally 7.60: 6//25 high, near the 6/27 low 7.45: 5/21 high. 7.30: just above 5/21 settlement, general resistance area on rallies in early January and early February 7.17-7.20:Intermediate support and resistance inflection point, was support in mid-October, resistance in late December/early January, support in early February, and resistance on rallies in early and late March 7.00: Psychological level, extends on a traded level down to 6.90 and has acted as an inflection point around which lots of trading has occurred going back to December. 6.78-6.80: Was strong support from 2-10-3/28, was resistance in June before the drought fears rally. 6.70: Has acted mainly as an intermediate support level since late November, but on numerous dates. 6.52-6.57: Was bottoming support in late November, mid-December,mid-April, and early June. Failure to hold here means a likely test of the contact lows. Resistance: 8.50: Psychological resistance 8.58¾: 7/9 high trade Comment: Technically, this market has maintained its quite positive bias along with Corn during the drought induced rally. Look for it to continue in this vein while the drought continues. When the results of the drought are more evident and some sort of final yield is forecast, we should see some sort of consolidation. We leave in place our comment from 4/5 as it addresses longer-term patterns we've noticed: Additionally, on our Momentum measure going back to late December, each positive shift has peaked at earlier and lower. This is in a period of a modestly negative bias in what has been largely range trading. May's Volatility has peaked just below the High range (< 1 STD). Pay attention to the harvest in Winter Wheat as it moves ahead of schedule due to warm weather and the plants benefit from rain in both Europe and the US. This market has been in a gently falling bearish pattern for the last 2 months since peaking on 2/1. On a longer-term view, the bearish dynamic has been in place, albeit with a sizable range, since February 2011. Volatility is now close to High (> 1 STD higher than Average) indicating there may be opportunities to sell premium in options. Seasonal Snapshot: For December- All 3 patterns enter a more positive biased mode on 7/10. 5 year will be in a very positive mode until peaking on 8/5. 15 and 30 years are in a generally positive trending direction until early September, with the 30 year swinging back and forth from positive to negative in that time period.

U.S. Treasurys' First Notice: Sep: 31Aug; Dec: 30Nov

U.S. Treasurys' Options Last Trade: Aug: 27July; Sep: 24Aug

10July Consolidating action is putting potential Hanging Man formations in place in the longer end contracts. Short end contracts are under mild, but meaningful pressure.

We see today's action reiterating our theme below:

Despite some intermittent "supportive" economic data, some of it in the crucial housing sector, we see growth as persistently anemic, and the numbers have stalled out in indicating growth going forward.

Couple the above with other disappointing global economic developments and risk-off days tend to drive a material share of investment and trading flows into the U.S. Treasury market.

Continuing Operation Twist operations should support the long end and add some moderate pressure to the short end.

BONDS: The safety trade continues to drive capital into the U.S. longer end, albeit, only lightly so in today's action. Bonds should continue to benefit from any risk-off action AND the expected Operation Twist induced demand.

Support: 150-24: pattern resistance since 6/1-6/7 sell-off
150-09: 6/5 support, 6/8 resistance, 6/18, 6/19 high trades

150-00: Big psychological level, resistance on 5/30 and 6/13.

149-21:6/21 high, settlements on 5/30 & 6/15

149-03 support on 5/31, 6/6-6/8. 6/17, resistance 6/19 & 6/20

148-16: Late May resistance

148-07: 6/21 low, Support level from 6/13 & 6/15

148:00: psychological support level, was resistance from 5/17-5/24, and has been support since 6/7

147-24: 6/13, 6/20 support & 5/22, 5/25 resistance

147-00: Psychological level, 5/16 resistance, support area 5/1-5/29, 6/11.

Resistance: 151-00: psychological resistance

151-24: 6/4 intra-day support, 6/5 intra-day resistance

152-00: psychological resistance

Comment: Bonds have now gone positive in Momentum; Trend already had shifted to rising.

With the lack of releases today, we see anemic Volume. Despite this observation, the Pricing is breaking out, making highs above the last month's range highs.

Seasonal Snapshot: (cash contract)

Bonds: The 5yr pattern declines 7/1. It then bounces higher and lower, going generally sideways until 7/23, whereupon it enters a generally negative pattern until early October. The 15 & 30 yrs consolidate with a downward bias until August.

Tens (10-YR NOTES):Tens remain exhibiting similar action as Bonds (or is the other way around?). Friday's action coupled with today's move has the Tens breakout out of the last month's range highs.

Support: 134-16: near +2 STD over the 21-day moving average 134-00: Psychological level. Support from 5/31-6/4, just above highs on 6/11, 6/15-6/19

133-17 intra-day chart high trades 6/11, 6/13, 6/17, 6/19, 6/20, 6/21, just above 21-day moving average (133-16), near mid-point of 3 week consolidation range.

133-08 supported on 6/14, 6/17

132-28: near 6/13 & 6/20 lows, resistance in late May

132-16: 5/15 resistance, 5/2/ support, near midpoint to 5/17-5/25 consolidation action

Resistance:134-20: high trades on 7/9 and 7/10, also traces back to intra-day support on 6/4.

135-00: Psychological level, just above 6/1 & 6/2 highs

Comment: The Tenstechnicals have now shifted to a distinctly positive bias. Pricing remains near the +2 STD (134-17) over the 21-day moving average (133-22.5). Look to this level to act as a drag on further gains.

Seasonal Snapshot: (cash contract)

Tens: The 5yr pattern is in a modest bounce and fall off sideways pattern until 7/23, whereupon it enters a more profound falling pattern until early September. The longer-term patterns are in a modestly downward bias that accelerates toward the end of July and lasts until October

2-YR NOTES: Despite today's modest fall in prices, we see thecontinuing Euro-mess driving a risk-off bias in financials, Twos have shifted more distinctly to a positive bias. Recent global Central banks' moves reinforce our view below.

While we continue to maintain that Twos being allowed to fall is counter to current stated Fed monetary and QE policy, with the 6/20 news regarding the continuation of Operation Twist, some modest pressure on the short end is to be expected as the Fed reconfigures its balance sheet.

If the Fed decides it needs to break out the QE nukes again, we should see a lurch higher.

Support: 110-06.25: resistance on 5/30, support from 6/6-6/8

110-5.25: 21-day moving average

110-04.75: Declining trend line from 6/4 peak, resistance from 5/25-5/30

110-04: support from 5/29-6/19

110-03.5: resistance after 6/20 FOMC sell-off, support after 6/21 overnight rally

110-03: Support on 5/25, 6/20, & 6/21.

110-02: 6/20 low post-FOMC sell-off.

Resistance: 110-08: High settlement on 6/5

110-08.25: High Trade on 6/4

110-09.25: spike high trade on 4/24

Comment: TheTwos' are now shifted to a positive bias and look to be poised to make new highs. The market, however, has traded up to the +2 STD (110-05) over the 21-day moving average (110.04.5). This level has tended to act as a drag on further moves.

Seasonal Snapshot: (cash contract) All three patterns bounce higher from 6/25 until 6/28, and then resume a generally negative bias until 7/10. The longer term Trend is negative until it seems to bottom in early October.

SEP 13 EURODOLLARS:

Support: 99.555: high trade on 6/20

99.535: high on 6/18 & 6/19, settlement on 6/20

99.525: Support level back to 6/20

99.510: major support and resistance level going back to 2/29 settlement. Major support low since 6/21. 99.500: high trade from 4/12-4/19 & 4/26-4/27, low from 5/1-5/4, settle on 5/7

99.490: high trades on 6/7 & 6/11
Resistance: 99.560: 2/3 and 3/2 highs and mid-August support.

99.570: 9/21/11 & 3/2 high trade.

Comment: With the short end benefiting from the risk-off financial issues, this market's technicals are shifting to a higher focus. Some retrenchment with today's consolidation.

BUNDS (German 10-yr): Bunds have completed the shift to a positive bias after last week's Eurozone "rescue" deal.

Support: 144:00: psychological level and early June resistance

143.45: late May resistance

142.45: 5/14 & 5/16 highs, support & resistance inflection 5/17-5/23

141.50: general support and resistance inflection area since 6/13 lows.

140.00: resistance in late April and early May

Resistance: 144.31: 7/9 high and 5/30 settlement

Comment: Technically, Bunds shifted to a positive bias. All our directional indicators are now pointing to higher levels. Doji pattern today, but with a higher settlement and higher Volume.

SCHATZ (2-yr):

ECB rate cut provides a reason to buy the Schatz. Period.

Along with the U.S. Twos, the Schatz falling will end up being counter to official policy desires so we have our doubts as to any negative bias sustainability.

Support: 110.755: Late May/Early June chart pattern support from pattern lows

110.6756/8 settlement and level of declining trend line drawn from 6/6 high.

110.625: 6/25 high and 6/11 low

110-59: resistance zone in early April, support and resistance inflection in late April/early May, support on 6/6, resistance on 6/14 & 6/15

110.50: psychological level

110.445: support in early April.

110.355: resistance in late March/early April, at various times support or resistance going back to late December.
Resistance: 110.800: Late May/Early June resistance

Comment: Schatz's technical pressure is now shifted with Trend and Momentum having already turned positive. This is in keeping with Central bank policy.

The Energies Review October 24, 2011

By Daniel Cronin

What a crazy week it was in the energy markets as crude rallied in the early part of the week to the resistance of $89.50 but fell big on economic uncertainty to $85 along with the stunning news of Qaddafi's death. The flat price is now higher on the Sunday night session to over $85 in Dec CL as this market just does not want to give up. Every time it gets knocked down it keeps getting back up and the $89.50 level is in jeopardy this week. The Euro/USD is looking to creep back up and break the resistance of $1.39 and if it does I believe Crude will try and test $90. The equities markets have broken the old high of 1225 and I believe this could have more to run on the upside. The DOE numbers will be very interesting so look for these coming out on Wednesday. For right now crude is stuck in a bit of range but I believe the price will have look to try and climb higher with all of the major resistances being breached.

Source: Pitguru.com

who Has Gold

News outlets have been all abuzz with the gold acquisitions of countries like China and Iran, and speculation over the size of Libya’s gold reserves. The potential motivation for buying gold, as well as the possibilities over what to spend it on, fuel stories that range on hot button topics. Is the US dollar so weak that oil producing nations are moving to precious metals as currencies? Will the availability of gold prolong the crisis in Libya and give Gaddafi a lifeline? Moreover, who else has gold in significant quantities?

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

***chart courtesy of Gecko Software

The global recession appears to have brought another round of exploration of gold as an alternative asset, however, the official purchases of gold for central bank reserves have remained somewhat muted. The idea behind a limited gold holding is that other assets are a better investment, offering interest payments over time. To put it blandly, gold holdings take up space, are clumsy and awkward to hold and move easily, and don’t offer interest payments. Creative ideas like leasing gold may offer some returns, but usually not at the rate some banks are pursuing.

So which countries were holding the most metric tons of gold heading into the close of 2010? According to the World Gold Council, the United States led the pack with over 8,100 tons. Germany came in with over 3,401 tons. The rest of the notable holdings are shown in the following chart:

Prior to the civil rebellion, Libya was holding a reported 143.8 tons of the shiny stuff. And the trick with gold holdings is that they cannot be seized or frozen by foreign entities. If they could be sold, the Financial Times is estimating that the gold holdings in Libya could fetch over $6 billion, and pay a private army or mercenaries for “months or even years.” Unlike other central banks that may hold their gold in international vaults in New York, London, or Switzerland, the bullion of Libya is reportedly in country, and available to the embattled leader. The other boon seen for Gaddafi is the same that other investors strive for – gold’s value cannot be set by other governments, and its appeal is universal. Of course, like other investors, moving nearly 150 tons of gold would not be an easy task. If the International Monetary Fund reports on transactions as small as 10 tons, can someone quietly buy upwards of $6 billion worth of gold without anyone noticing?

If nothing else, current unrest and persistent economic troubles have highlighted the opportunities in precious metals as asset preservation, in times of uncertainty as well as potential inflationary hedges. The latter is sought when it appears that central banks are pushing the envelope with stimulus programs. Iran is another news focus, allegedly adding to their gold reserves in an effort to protect their holdings and shift financial assets away from the US dollar. Unfortunately, the same table from the IMF doesn’t show Iran’s holdings. The basis for many news stories about these transactions appears to be from a Bank of England official and a note on Wikileaks.

Iran would not be alone in increasing holdings, potentially as a movement of assets away from the US dollar. Since the first part of the year 2000, several nations have added to their coffers rather than emptying them. Russia has added 366 tons. India picked up 200. China loaded up on 659 additional tons. Saudi Arabia squeezed in 180 more. Switzerland, France, IMF, and the Netherlands were among the ones shedding tonnage over the last decade.

Summary

Besides central banks, ETFs and other investment holdings have increased since the onset of the financial crisis in 2008. So potentially Gaddafi, Iran, China, Russia, and other countries are feeling the same thing that other investors are. Gold can be a good idea to add to your holdings when things get shaky. Precious metals appear to be an even better idea when things get messy. Governments can’t manipulate them. Central banks can’t add more at will. And if fiat currencies continue to weaken or you are placed in a situation where a universal currency is required, gold seems to fit the potential bill. It isn’t unusual then to see that a variety of buyers exist for gold.

Financials Review on Feb 22, 2011

Trouble overseas and the question is, what will happen to the global production of oil? Libya is seeing air force pilots defect and New Zealand had a large earthquake which has negatively affected the country's currency. Let's talk numbers so it is easier to see why traders might be fearful this morning. Libya creates an estimated 1.8 million barrels of crude a day which is 2% of the world global output. The other kicker is Libya sits on the biggest oil reserves in Africa. Investors may become concerned due to raw materials growing and of course the word some are fearing, inflation. When consumers have to pay more at the gas pump they have less money to spend on essentials. The U.S. Dollar Index and gold could see buy orders over the next few days if the events overseas worsen. This could put pressure on the stock market today. (1)

Over the past 21 months Wal-Mart has posted drops in sales and is blaming dollar stores as to why they are losing money. Sales overall have risen 2.5% to $115.6 billion which did not meet the expectations of Wall Street.(2) Home Depot beat sales and quarterly profit estimates as more and more people took on maintenance improvements. Net income rose over $240 million from last year at this point. (3)

Today the Case-Shiller 20-city Index is forecasted to come in at -2.2% and consumer confidence is expected to grow from 65.6 to 67.0. Wednesday existing home sales are forecast to be 5.40m which is up from the last announcement of 5.28m. Thursday initial claims will be announced and are forecast to be the same as the last announcement of 410k. Durable orders are forecast to grow to 3.6% which is revised from -2.5%. New home sales are expected to be 310k and forecasts might come in higher at 335k. Friday, there will be a GDP estimate that is expected to be raised by 0.2% to 3.4%. Michigan sentiment is forecasted to 75.5 up from 75.1 when last announced. (4)

- Frank LaMantia, Financials Guru

1 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Libyan-turmoil-hits-stocks-as-apf-1471605558.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
2 http://www.cnbc.com/id/41702728
3 http://www.cnbc.com/id/41702997
4 http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Grains Review on Jan 13th

Calls: Following WASDE the beans and corn trades touched limit twice before backing off slightly on the close. There was plenty of selling into the rally early with front end corn vol dropping by a whopping 18% to 34% basis Feb. March dropped by 6.5% on the day due to a lack of follow though once we touched limit. Also, this report offered a great exit for entrenched longs looking for an exit early in the year. The report offered no momentum for wheat after raising world stocks leaving the trade in the dust as compared with row crops. Outside momentum helped all session with talk of an Argentine farm sector strike starting on Jan 17th and running for 7 days. This is in protest of changing export parameters for corn and wheat. This is another brilliant political move by Kirchner that I think will blow up in her face. Bull spreads carried the day in corn and beans with the N/Z and N/X (beans) widening on the day. Paper was an aggressive seller of the N/Z 100p CSO for 20-cents. This is a bullish play commercials should love. Overall it was a day of many exits with few fresh positions put on. The strangest and most interesting one was in Beans with ADM buying 3,000 SN 23.00 calls for 8-cents. This smells of fund business going through a commercial. Heading into the afternoon, the trade is waiting for further word concerning the Argentine strike possibilities with confirmation seen late in the day. The strike is a no selling stance by farmers for corn, beans and wheat between Jan 17th-24th. This helped the market into the overnight with corn continuing to lead the way with oil losing to meal but this looks short lived due to production problems in Malaysia and India looking to eliminate their palm import tax. Heading into the day session export sales were nothing to get excited about and macros are having only a minor impact so far with both the Euro and crude chopping on either side of unchanged. This is a big pullback for the Euro so watch this factor closely.

Beans are called 6-8 Higher to start moving above the daily contract high and into no man's land on the weekly chart. The only comparative year is 2008 but I think the market actually has a major world production and consumptive problem. Indicators on the weekly chart remain in the upper end of the range with no overt signs of weakness. Corn is called 8-10 Higher breaking above contract highs with indicators turning positive following a week long pullback. A perfect picture for bulls, I think. Wheat is called 6-8 Higher holding the most upside ground to gain. There is nothing to stop the wheat except a lack of excitement. I favor KC and Minni over Chicago and ride this horse all season long. Meal is called 2-3 dollars Higher breaking above contract highs yesterday and continuing this overnight. There is no reason to be bearish from a technical standpoint. Indicators are at the upper end but they have been for weeks. Oil is called Flat/Mixed looking for momentum for crude and palm oil. A break above 59.10 is needed to spark fresh interest.


Fundamental: Argentine weather is looking at bit wetter through the weekend with the southern and central regions favored over the far northern regions. BA and surrounding areas look to receive .50-1.00" with 70% coverage through Monday. This will help overall prospects but the north remains too dry for anyone to be comfortable. Brazil remains in good shape overall with only the far south of any concern at the moment.

Open interest shifted as follows: Corn +27277, Beans +12701, Wheat +3633, Meal +8310 and oil +9485. Rebalancing is a major factor right? I feel the population of new ETF's and fresh allocations from CTAs is the major factor. Add commercial fund money and this looks to continue, not abate. Commodities are a hot topic that will continue to garner media attention potentially pulling more money into the trade. It's a beautiful circle.

China bought 40 TMT US bean oil yesterday for second quarter delivery.

Pakistan has sold between 200-2500 TMT of wheat to Bangladesh and Myanmar. This is their first sales in three years due to floods and drought ravaged crops. This is a mildly bearish impact but Pakistan will not export to anyone not abutting the country so the world impact is minimal.


The 6-10 day maps continue to show below average temps in the Midwest but there is ample coverage following the recent snows to cause no worry. The worry still lies in the HRW regions with no precipitation expected with the current 3-4-days system moving through the northern half of the US. This only adds to woes for farmers in that region. The trade impact is minimal today due to this being a known factor but it offers no relief for shorts nor any threat to those long KC versus CHI.

Jordan tendered for 100 TMT Hard milling wheat. Bad timing I think.

Following yesterday's WASDE report the corn stocks to use ratio is down to 5.5% (Thanks MaryAnn). This is shockingly low forcing more and more corn users to sweat against shorts July forward. If Argentina continues to show problems I believe corn has no choice but move higher due to world supply concerns. The corn carryout at 745 million is the lowest in 15 years...want to get short this? I don't.

Palm oil traded 44 Higher overnight on production concerns. Couple this with India talking of eliminating their palm import tariff and you can start to paint the tight world situation that I talked about in the preWASDE report. The US is swimming in oil but the world is not, the world will win.

Talk has Chinese crush margins back to even and possibly turning positive shortly. This is a major swing from the talked about 20/tonne loss just a month ago.

Export sales came in as follows: Corn 439.2 10/11 and 68.3 11/12 with 613.7 TMT shipped. Beans 495 10/11 and 180 11/12 with 950.2 TMT shipped. Most of the sales and shipments were, of course, to China. Wheat 147.3 10/11 with 27.9 11/12 with 613.7 shipped. Meal 26.2 TMT sold with 278.2 shipped (none to China) Oil 7.5 TMT sold and 57.2 TMT shipped with 29 TMT heading to China.

Overall disappointing but the trade was still in holiday mode. I look for these numbers to pick up dramatically in the coming weeks.

Options: Yesterday the market learned how volatile cereal options can be with an amazing drop of 18% in CG options. This was due to a lack of follow through following WASDE with March taking a 6% hit now sitting at 39%. May was down 3% lower with deferreds down about 2%. This is a solid drop but still expensive enough to make buying it scary but I would not sell any vol. If you want to own vol, look to beans. Following yesterday's drop, SH vol is down to a scary low level of 31%. This is 8% under corn or wheat in March with July sitting at only 32%. I like looking at owning upside calls in beans and straddles with vol ownership advised. Corn bulls may want to simply buy calls or invert 1X2 call spreads looking for an explosion. There is no slope so buying call spreads is not advised.

The following chart includes my observations:

***chart courtesy Gecko Software
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MACROS:Are mixed but support from a surging Euro following good bond sales in Spain and Italy helps the upside momentum. Crude remains choppy with metals on the sideline so far. Cotton is 200 higher with sugar inching its way higher helping even more.

Gold is trading 4.20 Higher sitting at 1,390.00.
Crude is trading .20 Lower sitting at 91.66 as of 8:25 CST.
The Euro is .0148 Higher against the USD trading at 1.3276.
The Yen is .22 Lower against the USD trading at 82.74.

Daily Wisdom: A peace is of the nature of a conquest; for then both parties nobly are subdued, and neither party loser. - William Shakespeare

- Matthew Pierce, Grains Guru

James Mound’s Weekend Commodities Review

Financials

The S&P500 has developed an interesting multi-pronged technical setup on a daily chart that indicates a strong decline to 1203, possibly as low as 1184 in the near term. I believe the stock market rallied based on the Obama extensions of the Bush tax cuts, but overall the market will find weakness in global economic concerns and a reversal in premature bond selling. As money migrates back into the U.S. dollar from a continued exodus in Europe it is more likely funds will pour into bonds than an overbought stock market. Expect a dollar run to 83, a 3-5% drop in stock prices, and a decent bond retracement to 126 over a relatively short time frame. The euro and pound remain sells with the Canadian and Aussie dollar worthy of long term shorts. The Japanese yen remains a bull bright spot amid a sea of bearish foreign currency plays, with money moving to Japan as it leaves Europe and investors lack alternatives. I continue to stand by my forecast that:

Grains

Corn, wheat and soybeans have all developed congestion patterns near the highs, not altogether a bearish indicator but rather a suggestion that momentum and upside volatility have subsided. My expectations for declines in the stock market and energy sector are likely to hit the grain sector as well, given the lack of fundamental influences in grains this time of year and the overall psychology that global economic weakness means declining grain demand. Put plays are recommended across the board.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

**Chart courtesy of Gecko Software's TracknTrade

Meats

Cattle is testing key trend line support and should fail this week. Hogs remain choppy and avoidable for the time being.

Metals

Gold and silver remain near the highs with choppy intermittently volatile trade lacking clear near term direction. Get short heading into the last few weeks of 2010 as a liquidation event is expected in both markets in the near term. Copper offers a fundamental long term sell ahead of a China slowdown causing panic selling in that market.

Softs

A short covering rally in coffee appears underway, however this move (possibly to 230) is expected to be short-lived and worthy of a put play on a further move up. Cocoa has established a likely near term top and is a sell with straight long puts. Cotton is attempting to pull off the miraculous feat of new highs after such a dramatic collapse. This is unlikely to occur, mainly on a technical level as it is very rare to see epic highs followed by an extreme retracement followed by a rapid return to the highs. Instead, look at this as the market setting a secondary top for a less volatile selloff ahead. OJ is a short with puts. Sugar is a sell using bear put spreads. Lumber remains a cycle buy on dips.